Heuristic about the what science can tell us about systems that we learn and that learn us back.
I’m writing about this elsewhere and will dump the results in when I have finished with that.
What the success of machine learning tells us about the structure of the world. Non-arbitrage versus hypothesis tests. Adversarial versus random noise. Economic systems. The bit before attaining equilibrium. Homogenaeity versus local regularities. Our tendency to look for universals.
Scale effects in economics are a subject of the 2019 Nobel Memorial economics prize. internal versus external validity in economics.
|Static world||Adaptive world|
|People are…||the objects||the subjects|
|Individual behaviour emerges from…||fixed personalities that we can discover||networks and group dynamics|
|Society is…||a system with static rules||a game with rules made up by players as they go along|
|We should…||learn the truth and act upon it||guess a better next move than the other actors|
|Learning means…||accepting a hypothesis based on P-value||betting on the best portfolio of actions|
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Deschâtres, Fabrice, and Didier Sornette. 2005. “Dynamics of Book Sales: Endogenous Versus Exogenous Shocks in Complex Networks.” Physical Review E 72 (1): 016112. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.72.016112.
Kauffman, Stuart A, and Sonke Johnsen. 1991. “Coevolution to the Edge of Chaos: Coupled Fitness Landscapes, Poised States, and Coevolutionary Avalanches*.” Journal of Theoretical Biology 149: 467–505. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-5193(05)80094-3.
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———. 1996. The Sciences of the Artificial. The MIT Press.
Sornette, Didier. 2003. “Critical Market Crashes.” Physics Reports 378 (1): 1–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0370-1573(02)00634-8.
———. 2006. “Endogenous Versus Exogenous Origins of Crises.” In Extreme Events in Nature and Society, 95–119. The Frontiers Collection. Springer. http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0412026.
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———. 2009b. “Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises” 2 (1). http://arxiv.org/abs/0907.4290.
Sornette, Didier, and Peter Cauwels. 2012. “The Illusion of the Perpetual Money Machine.” SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 2191509. Notenstein Academy White Paper Series. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network. http://arxiv.org/abs/1212.2833.
———. 2014. “A Creepy World,” January. http://arxiv.org/abs/1401.3281.
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Yukalov, V.I., E.P. Yukalova, and D. Sornette. 2009. “Punctuated Evolution Due to Delayed Carrying Capacity.” Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 238 (17): 1752–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2009.05.011.