Dealing with it, predicting it etc.
1200 years of kyoto cherry blossom records Source: The Economist
I’d been arguing that my research is in some way relevant to this. Specifically, I’d arguend that a model of technology is important to consider climate change adaptation strategies – e.g. to cost them, to make arguments about it in policy circles.
When I last visited my friend, economist Kathryn Smith she argued that this is bollocks, since (don’t quote her on this; this is my from-memory understanding) any conceivable gains in technological efficiency are dwarfed both in magnitude and in variance, by the costs of climate change mitigation – essentially, she posits, a couple of orders of magnitudes of improvements in industrial process make at most a few percent difference to the projected bottom line costs of climate change. In any case, the projected costs of runaway climate change are large and also highly uncertain. A few percentage points don’t change that you are fucked, just marginally change your expected degree of fuckedness.
Hm. I’d like a reference for that.
Anyway, here are some other things upon which I’d like to expand.
Fixing climate change
Paul Hawken et al, Drawdown:
Project Drawdown is the most comprehensive plan ever proposed to reverse global warming. Our organization did not make or devise the plan—we found the plan because it already exists. We gathered a qualified and diverse group of researchers from around the world to identify, research, and model the 100 most substantive, existing solutions to address climate change. What was uncovered is a path forward that can roll back global warming within thirty years. It shows that humanity has the means at hand. Nothing new needs to be invented.
Mitigating, capitalising upon
Chicago’s Future of water
“We’re going to be like the Saudi Arabia of freshwater. This is one of the best places in the world to live out global warming.”
Robert Pollin, De-growth vs a green new deal
it is in fact absolutely imperative that some categories of economic activity should now grow massively—those associated with the production and distribution of clean energy. Concurrently, the global fossil-fuel industry needs to contract massively—that is, to ‘de-grow’ relentlessly over the next forty or fifty years until it has virtually shut down. In my view, addressing these matters in terms of their specifics is more constructive in addressing climate change than presenting broad generalities about the nature of economic growth, positive or negative.
- 15 Trees does Australian community tree planting.
Opinion dynamics of climate change science
How to talk to a sceptic Re branding idea: “How to talk with a sceptic”.
Mental models of climate change and their difficulties for our ape brains. TBD.
- OuKM13: Chieh Ou-Yang, Howard Kunreuther, Erwann Michel-Kerjan (2013) An Economic Analysis of Climate Adaptations to Hurricane Risk in St Lucia. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 38(3), 521–546. DOI
- HsMC11: Solomon M. Hsiang, Kyle C. Meng, Mark A. Cane (2011) Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate. Nature, 476(7361), 438–441. DOI
- PPRS07: Roger Pielke, Gwyn Prins, Steve Rayner, Daniel Sarewitz (2007) Climate change 2007: Lifting the taboo on adaptation. Nature, 445, 597–598. DOI
- PDFN07: Katrina M Proust, Stephen R Dovers, Barney Foran, Barry Newell, Will Steffen, Patrick Troy (2007) Climate, energy and water Accounting for the links. Canberra: Land & Water Australia
- StSw02: John D Sterman, Linda B Sweeney (2002) Cloudy skies: assessing public understanding of global warming. System Dynamics Review, 18, 207–240.
- Ster11: John D. Sterman (2011) Communicating climate change risks in a skeptical world. Climatic Change, 108(4), 811–826. DOI
- Poll18: Robert Pollin (2018) De-Growth vs a Green New Deal. New Left Review, (112), 5–25.
- Schi18: Quirin Schiermeier (2018, July 30) Droughts, heatwaves and floods: How to tell when climate change is to blame Nature. News DOI
- Deca03: Stephen J DeCanio (2003) Economic Models of Climate Change: A Critique. Palgrave Macmillan
- Weit11: Martin L. Weitzman (2011) Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 5(2), 275–292. DOI
- LaDP00: John A Laitner, Stephen J DeCanio, Irene Peters (2000) Incorporating Behavioural, Social, and Organizational Phenomena in the assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Options. In Society, Behaviour, and Climate Change Mitigation (pp. 1–64). Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers
- ADHS09: Frank Ackerman, Stephen J DeCanio, Richard Howarth, Kristen Sheeran (2009) Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change. Climatic Change, 95, 297–315.
- OrCo10: Naomi Oreskes, Erik M. Conway (2010) Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming. New York: Bloomsbury Press
- AoKa08: Yasuyuki Aono, Keiko Kazui (2008) Phenological data series of cherry tree flowering in Kyoto, Japan, and its application to reconstruction of springtime temperatures since the 9th century. International Journal of Climatology, 28(7), 905–914. DOI
- Weit07: Martin Weitzman (2007) Structural Uncertainty and the Value of Statistical Life in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change (Working Paper No. 13490). National Bureau of Economic Research
- ThZw84: H. J. Thiébaux, F. W. Zwiers (1984) The Interpretation and Estimation of Effective Sample Size. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 23(5), 800–811.
- MSSA11: Claire Monteleoni, Gavin A. Schmidt, Shailesh Saroha, Eva Asplund (2011) Tracking Climate Models. Stat. Anal. Data Min., 4(4), 372–392. DOI
- StSw07: John D. Sterman, Linda Booth Sweeney (2007) Understanding public complacency about climate change: adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter. Climatic Change, 80(3–4), 213–238. DOI