The Living Thing / Notebooks :

Climate crisis

The conspiracy of those malign incumbent powers, the laws of physics, against the plucky underdog, coal megacorporations

Usefulness: 🔧
Novelty: 💡
Uncertainty: 🤪 🤪 🤪
Incompleteness: 🚧 🚧 🚧

Dealing with it, predicting it etc.

1200 years of kyoto cherry blossom records Source: The Economist

Tail risk

Tim Harford summarizes Weitzman (M. Weitzman 2007; Weitzman 2011; Martin L Weitzman 2007):

It is only when we ponder the tail risk that we realise how dangerous climate change might be. Local air pollution isn’t going to wipe out the human race. Climate change probably won’t, either. But it might. When we buy insurance, it isn’t because we expect the worst, but because we recognise that the worst might happen.

Regional effects

Australia: How the climate crisis will affect you.

Fixing climate change

Mitigating, capitalising upon

Chicago’s Future of water

“We’re going to be like the Saudi Arabia of freshwater. This is one of the best places in the world to live out global warming.”

Robert Pollin, De-growth vs a green new deal

it is in fact absolutely imperative that some categories of economic activity should now grow massively—those associated with the production and distribution of clean energy. Concurrently, the global fossil-fuel industry needs to contract massively—that is, to ‘de-grow’ relentlessly over the next forty or fifty years until it has virtually shut down. In my view, addressing these matters in terms of their specifics is more constructive in addressing climate change than presenting broad generalities about the nature of economic growth, positive or negative.

Carbon offsets

Opinion dynamics of climate change science

Bathtub Dynamics

Mental models of climate change and their difficulties for our ape brains. 🚧

Visualising it

Refs

Ackerman, Frank, Stephen J DeCanio, Richard Howarth, and Kristen Sheeran. 2009. “Limitations of Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change.” Climatic Change 95: 297–315.

Aono, Yasuyuki, and Keiko Kazui. 2008. “Phenological Data Series of Cherry Tree Flowering in Kyoto, Japan, and Its Application to Reconstruction of Springtime Temperatures Since the 9th Century.” International Journal of Climatology 28 (7): 905–14. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1594.

DeCanio, Stephen J. 2003. Economic Models of Climate Change: A Critique. Palgrave Macmillan.

Hsiang, Solomon M., Kyle C. Meng, and Mark A. Cane. 2011. “Civil Conflicts Are Associated with the Global Climate.” Nature 476 (7361): 438–41. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10311.

Laitner, John A, Stephen J DeCanio, and Irene Peters. 2000. “Incorporating Behavioural, Social, and Organizational Phenomena in the Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Options.” In Society, Behaviour, and Climate Change Mitigation, 1–64. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Oreskes, Naomi, and Erik M. Conway. 2010. Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming. 1 edition. New York: Bloomsbury Press.

Ou-Yang, Chieh, Howard Kunreuther, and Erwann Michel-Kerjan. 2013. “An Economic Analysis of Climate Adaptations to Hurricane Risk in St. Lucia.” The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice 38 (3): 521–46. https://doi.org/10.1057/gpp.2013.18.

Pielke, Roger, Gwyn Prins, Steve Rayner, and Daniel Sarewitz. 2007. “Climate Change 2007: Lifting the Taboo on Adaptation.” Nature 445: 597–98. https://doi.org/10.1038/445597a.

Pollin, Robert. 2018. “De-Growth Vs a Green New Deal.” New Left Review, II,, no. 112: 5–25.

Proust, Katrina M, Stephen R Dovers, Barney Foran, Barry Newell, Will Steffen, and Patrick Troy. 2007. “Climate, Energy and Water Accounting for the Links.” Canberra: Land & Water Australia.

Schiermeier, Quirin. 2018. “Droughts, Heatwaves and Floods: How to Tell When Climate Change Is to Blame.” News. Nature. July 30, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-05849-9.

Schlenker, Wolfram, and Charles Taylor. 2019a. “The Market Is Betting on Climate Change.” VoxEU.org. May 2, 2019. https://voxeu.org/article/market-betting-climate-change.

Schlenker, Wolfram, and Charles A Taylor. 2019b. “Market Expectations About Climate Change.” Working Paper 25554. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w25554.

Sterman, John D. 2011. “Communicating Climate Change Risks in a Skeptical World.” Climatic Change 108 (4): 811–26. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0189-3.

Sterman, John D, and Linda B Sweeney. 2002. “Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming.” System Dynamics Review 18: 207–40.

Sterman, John D., and Linda Booth Sweeney. 2007. “Understanding Public Complacency About Climate Change: Adults’ Mental Models of Climate Change Violate Conservation of Matter.” Climatic Change 80 (3-4): 213–38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9107-5.

Thiébaux, H. J., and F. W. Zwiers. 1984. “The Interpretation and Estimation of Effective Sample Size.” Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23 (5): 800–811. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1984JApMe..23..800T.

Weitzman, Martin. 2007. “Structural Uncertainty and the Value of Statistical Life in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change.” Working Paper 13490. National Bureau of Economic Research. http://www.nber.org/papers/w13490.

Weitzman, Martin L. 2011. “Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change.” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 5 (2): 275–92. https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rer006.

Weitzman, Martin L. 2007. “A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change.” Journal of Economic Literature, 22. https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/weitzman/files/review_of_stern_review_jel.45.3.pdf.