The Living Thing / Notebooks :

Climate change

Dealing with it, predicting it etc.

1200 years of kyoto cherry blossom *records*

I’d been arguing that my research is in some way relevant to this. Specifically, I’d arguend that a model of technology is important to consider climate change adaptation strategies - e.g. to cost them, to make arguments about it in policy circles.

When I last visited my friend, economist Kathryn Smith she argued that this is bollocks, since (don’t quote her on this; this is my from-memory understanding) any conceivable gains in technological efficiency are dwarfed both in magnitude and in variance, by the costs of climate change mitigation — essentially, she posits, a couple of orders of magnitudes of improvements in industrial process make at most a few percent difference to the projected bottom line costs of climate change. In any case, the project costs of runaway climate change are large and also highly uncertain. A few percentage points don’t change that you are fucked, just marginally change your expected degree of fuckedness.

Hm. I’d like a reference for that.

Anyway, here are some other things upon which I’d like to expand.

Fixing climate change

Opinion dynamics of climate change science

Bathtub Dynamics


Graphing it


Ackerman, F., DeCanio, S. J., Howarth, R., & Sheeran, K. (2009) Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change. Climatic Change, 95, 297–315.
DeCanio, S. J.(2003) Economic Models of Climate Change: A Critique. . Palgrave Macmillan
Hsiang, S. M., Meng, K. C., & Cane, M. A.(2011) Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate. Nature, 476(7361), 438–441. DOI.
Laitner, J. A., DeCanio, S. J., & Peters, I. (2000) Incorporating Behavioural, Social, and Organizational Phenomena in the assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Options. In Society, Behaviour, and Climate Change Mitigation (pp. 1–64). Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers
Mastrandrea, M. D., Field, C. B., Stocker, T. F., Edenhofer, O., Ebi, K. L., Frame, D. J., … others. (2010) Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC fifth assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Monteleoni, C., Schmidt, G. A., & McQuade, S. (2013) Climate Informatics: Accelerating Discovering in Climate Science with Machine Learning. Computing in Science & Engineering, 15(5), 32–40. DOI.
Monteleoni, C., Schmidt, G. A., Saroha, S., & Asplund, E. (2011) Tracking Climate Models. Stat. Anal. Data Min., 4(4), 372–392. DOI.
Oreskes, N., & Conway, E. M.(2010) Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming. (1 edition.). New York: Bloomsbury Press
Ostrom, E. (2010) A Polycentric Approach for Coping with Climate Change Background Paper to the 2010 World Development Report. Policy Research Working Paper, 5095.
Ou-Yang, C., Kunreuther, H., & Michel-Kerjan, E. (2013) An Economic Analysis of Climate Adaptations to Hurricane Risk in St Lucia. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 38(3), 521–546. DOI.
Pielke, R., Prins, G., Rayner, S., & Sarewitz, D. (2007) Climate change 2007: Lifting the taboo on adaptation. Nature, 445, 597–598. DOI.
Proust, K. M., Dovers, S. R., Foran, B., Newell, B., Steffen, W., & Troy, P. (2007) Climate, energy and water Accounting for the links. . Canberra: Land & Water Australia
Repenning, N. P., & Sterman, J. D.(2001) Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: - Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement. California Management Review, 43, 64.
Somerville, R. C. J., & Hassol, S. J.(2011) Communicating the science of climate change. Physics Today, 64(10), 48. DOI.
Sterman, J. D.(2011) Communicating climate change risks in a skeptical world. Climatic Change, 108(4), 811–826. DOI.
Sterman, J. D., & Sweeney, L. B.(2002) Cloudy skies: assessing public understanding of global warming. System Dynamics Review, 18, 207–240.
Sterman, J. D., & Sweeney, L. B.(2007) Understanding public complacency about climate change: adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter. Climatic Change, 80(3–4), 213–238. DOI.
Thiébaux, H. J., & Zwiers, F. W.(1984) The Interpretation and Estimation of Effective Sample Size. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 23(5), 800–811.
Weitzman, M. (2007) Structural Uncertainty and the Value of Statistical Life in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change (Working Paper No. 13490). . National Bureau of Economic Research
Weitzman, M. L.(2011) Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 5(2), 275–292. DOI.