Dealing with it, predicting it etc.
1200 years of kyoto cherry blossom records Source: The Economist
I’d been arguing that my research is in some way relevant to this. Specifically, I’d arguend that a model of technology is important to consider climate change adaptation strategies - e.g. to cost them, to make arguments about it in policy circles.
When I last visited my friend, economist Kathryn Smith she argued that this is bollocks, since (don’t quote her on this; this is my from-memory understanding) any conceivable gains in technological efficiency are dwarfed both in magnitude and in variance, by the costs of climate change mitigation — essentially, she posits, a couple of orders of magnitudes of improvements in industrial process make at most a few percent difference to the projected bottom line costs of climate change. In any case, the projected costs of runaway climate change are large and also highly uncertain. A few percentage points don’t change that you are fucked, just marginally change your expected degree of fuckedness.
Hm. I’d like a reference for that.
Anyway, here are some other things upon which I’d like to expand.
Fixing climate change
- Paul Hawken et al, Drawdown:
Project Drawdown is the most comprehensive plan ever proposed to reverse global warming. Our organization did not make or devise the plan—we found the plan because it already exists. We gathered a qualified and diverse group of researchers from around the world to identify, research, and model the 100 most substantive, existing solutions to address climate change. What was uncovered is a path forward that can roll back global warming within thirty years. It shows that humanity has the means at hand. Nothing new needs to be invented.
Most interesting index Solution summary by rank, which is one of the better uses cost rankings of this stuff. If their figures are accurate, this is a good pinup for effective altruism.
Mitigating, capitalising upon
Chicago’s Future of water
“We’re going to be like the Saudi Arabia of freshwater. This is one of the best places in the world to live out global warming.”
Robert Pollin, De-growth vs a green new deal
it is in fact absolutely imperative that some categories of economic activity should now grow massively—those associated with the production and distribution of clean energy. Concurrently, the global fossil-fuel industry needs to contract massively—that is, to ‘de-grow’ relentlessly over the next forty or fifty years until it has virtually shut down. In my view, addressing these matters in terms of their specifics is more constructive in addressing climate change than presenting broad generalities about the nature of economic growth, positive or negative.
Opinion dynamics of climate change science
Mental models of climate change and their difficulties for our ape brains. TBD.