The Living Thing / Notebooks :

Applied psephology

Tom Gauld:

Voting system
Voting system

On the practicalities of voter modeling in elections, for the purpose of influencing how they vote, with special reference to Australian elections. Marketing psychology for governments, and for those who wish to have control of governments. This also relates, in these increasingly polarised times, to the difficulties of getting along.

For now, a smattering of links.

TODO: mention problems of ecological inference, Simpson’s paradoxes in electoral demographics, “Symbolic data analysis” for census data, response bias, survey design etc. Finish up with practical tips.

How it’s being done

Practicalities

Australian specifics

Peter Ellis, on his Australian Federal Election 2019 forecasts post introduces his useful ozfedelect package for R, for a bit of easy modelling. More from that author. eechidna, by Carson Sievert, Rob Hyndman, Diane Cook and Heike Hofmann and many others, has a temporo-spatial electorate data from 2001-2016, and I think ozfedelect builds upon that?

On voters strategically changing electorates

What are the marginal benefits of treating politics like the porkbarrel machine it seems to be and behave accordingly? I’d like it to be otherwise, but let’s work with what we have.

Optimal electoral marginalness, inverse gerrymandering etc. Invading marginal electorates. Organised opposition means one would be are more likely to claim council seats as a side benefit.

How well could you do this? How static are the preferences of the voters?

Refs